hypothetical scenario: a workplace where all the other employees are breaking a workplace safety rule in a way that runs a risk of causing serious harm.
examples of thinking maybe 1 step ahead:
“I will ask them nicely to stop (and hope they listen and don’t get mad at me)”
“I will tell management (and hope management gets them to stop and that none of them get mad at me)”
example of thinking maybe 2 steps ahead:
“I will ask them nicely to stop, and if they don’t listen then I’ll escalate it to management. that way at least they can’t reasonably be mad at me for going behind their backs without asking first”
option 1:
I ask them nicely to stop.
possible outcomes:
1/1 they stop and the problem is fixed [end scenario, resolved. ideal but unlikely]
½ they do not stop and the problem continues
if ½, possible options:
option ½/1.
after my coworkers ignore my direct request, I stay quiet and do not report the problem.
possible outcomes:
½/1/1: nothing happens; problem continues [end scenario, nothing changed]
½/½: management finds out in another way
if ½/½, possible outcomes:
½/½/1: management does nothing, problem continues [end scenario, nothing changed]
½/½/2: management cracks down on the problem
if ½/½/2, possible outcomes:
½/½/2/1: management is unsuccessful, problem continues. coworkers are angry at me because they assume I was the snitch, due to my previously bringing it up with them in private. [end scenario, problem unresolved, plus no longer able to work cooperatively with coworkers; worse than before.]
½/½/2/2: management is successful, problem stops. coworkers are angry at me because they assume I was the snitch, due to my previously bringing it up with them in private. [end scenario, one problem replaced with another, no longer able to work cooperatively with coworkers. rule-breaking stopped, but situation overall worse than before, unless rule-breaking was very dangerous.]
option ½/2.
after my coworkers ignore my direct request, I report the problem to management
possible outcomes:
½/2/1: management does nothing, problem continues [end scenario, nothing changed]
½/2/2: management cracks down on the problem
if ½/2/2, possible outcomes:
½/2/2/1: management is unsuccessful, problem continues. coworkers are angry at me because they assume (this time correctly) that I was the snitch, due to my previously bringing it up with them in private. [end scenario, problem unresolved, plus no longer able to work cooperatively with coworkers; worse than before.]
½/2/2/2: management is successful, problem stops. coworkers are angry at me because they assume (correctly) that I was the snitch, due to my previously bringing it up with them in private. [end scenario, one problem replaced with another, no longer able to work cooperatively with coworkers. rule-breaking stopped, but situation overall worse than before, unless rule-breaking was very dangerous.]
option 2: I do not ask my coworkers privately to stop, and go directly to management
possible outcomes:
2/1: management does nothing, problem continues [end scenario, nothing changed]
2/2: management cracks down on the problem
if 2/2, possible outcomes:
2/2/1: management is unsuccessful, problem continues.
possible outcomes:
2/2/1/1: coworkers do not figure out I was the snitch. they are not angry with me, only angry with management, whom they continue to disobey. [end scenario, problem unresolved, same as before.]
2/2/½: coworkers are angry at me because they correctly guess that I was the snitch, despite my not bringing it up with them in private. they are extra angry, because I didn’t even try asking them nicely first. [end scenario, problem unresolved, plus no longer able to work cooperatively with coworkers; worse than before.]
2/2/2: management is successful, problem stops.
possible outcomes:
2/2/2/1: coworkers do not figure out I was the snitch. they are not angry with me, only angry with management, but at least they obey and the problem stops. [end scenario, problem resolved.]
2/2/2/2: coworkers stop disobeying, but they are angry at me because they correctly guess that I was the snitch, despite my not bringing it up with them in private. they are extra angry, because I didn’t even try asking them nicely first. [end scenario, one problem replaced with another, no longer able to work cooperatively with coworkers. rule-breaking stopped, but situation overall worse than before, unless rule-breaking was very dangerous.]
option 3: I do nothing: neither ask my coworkers to stop, nor go directly to management
possible outcomes:
3/1: nothing happens, problem continues [end scenario, nothing changed]
3/2: management finds out in another way
if 3/2, possible outcomes:
3/2/1: management does nothing, problem continues [end scenario, nothing changed]
3/2/2: management cracks down on the problem
if 3/2/2, possible outcomes:
3/2/2/1: management is unsuccessful, problem continues.
if 3/2/2/1, possible outcomes:
3/2/2/1/1: coworkers are not angry with me, only angry with management, whom they continue to disobey. [end scenario, problem unresolved, same as before.]
3/2/2/½: coworkers are angry at me because they incorrectly assume that I was the snitch. they are extra angry, because they think I went to management without even asking them nicely first. [end scenario, problem unresolved, plus no longer able to work cooperatively with coworkers; worse than before.]
3/2/2/2: management is successful, problem stops.
if 3/2/2/2, possible outcomes:
3/2/2/2/1: coworkers are not angry with me, only angry with management, but at least they obey and the problem stops. [end scenario, problem resolved.]
3/2/2/2/2: coworkers stop disobeying, but are angry at me because they incorrectly assume that I was the snitch. they are extra angry, because they think I went to management without even asking them nicely first. [end scenario, one problem replaced with another, no longer able to work cooperatively with coworkers. rule-breaking stopped, but situation overall worse than before, unless rule-breaking was very dangerous.]
Conclusion: my three options can bring the scenario to different ends as follows:
“option 1:
I ask them nicely to stop.”
(8 possible outcomes: 1 improved, 4 worsened, 3 unchanged; improvement only possible if they comply with my request right away)
“option 2: I do not ask my coworkers to stop, and go directly to management”
(5 possible outcomes: 1 improved, 2 worsened, 2 unchanged)
“option 3: I do nothing: neither ask my coworkers to stop, nor go directly to management”
(6 possible outcomes: 1 improved, 2 worsened, 3 unchanged)
Final Conclusion: I have very little chance of improving this problem by any means, and a high chance of worsening it.
Since I have no reliable way of gauging how likely any of the outcomes are as individual probabilities, I must treat them as more-or-less equally likely.
The only assumptions I make are:
Thus, to maximize chance of improvement and minimize chance of worsening, my options in order from best to worst are: “go straight to management,” “do nothing,” and “ask coworkers first and then escalate to management if needed.”
This is counterintuitive, because the preference of my coworkers, whose anger I am most concerned about, would go differently. However, since they may base anger on untrue assumptions regardless of my actual choices, their anger in some cases cannot be avoided, or can only be avoided through luck.
[end of line]
…and all of this goes through my head BEFORE I make a decision.
…and the decision still ends up being wrong.